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ALICO, INC. (ALCO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue rose 20.8% year over year to $16.9M, driven by higher price per pound solids under the Tropicana contract; diluted EPS was $(1.20) versus $5.64 in Q1 2024 as last year benefited from a $77.0M land-sale gain .
  • Adjusted EBITDA improved to $0.75M from $(2.31)M in Q1 2024 on pricing tailwinds, despite lower citrus pound solids due to Hurricane Milton; reported EBITDA was $(6.67)M given inventory NRV adjustments and no land-sale gains this quarter .
  • Management formally launched a strategic transformation to wind down citrus after the current harvest and pivot to diversified land monetization and development, targeting ~$20M of land sales in FY25 and sufficient year-end cash to fund operations through FY2027; available credit capacity was ~$73.5M with no significant maturities until 2029 .
  • Near-term stock narrative catalyst: accelerating shift from seasonal, weather/disease-exposed citrus profits to more stable, option-like land monetization and entitlements, with explicit proceeds and cash runway targets communicated this quarter .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Price realization strengthened: average price per pound solids increased $1.03 (+38.7%) YoY on more favorable Tropicana contract terms, lifting revenue despite lower production .
  • Adjusted EBITDA turned positive: $0.75M in Q1 2025 vs $(2.31)M in Q1 2024, supported by pricing and lower G&A, reflecting early benefits from disciplined cost management .
  • Balance-sheet flexibility: ~$73.5M of undrawn credit capacity and no significant maturities until 2029; management reiterated liquidity sufficiency to support operations through FY2027 .

What Went Wrong

  • Production headwinds: pound solids declined ~13% YoY, with fruit drop attributed to Hurricane Milton; boxes harvested fell ~12.5% YoY .
  • Earnings pressure from lack of land sales: net loss to common shareholders of $(9.2)M vs $42.9M in Q1 2024, largely due to no land-sale gains this quarter vs $77.0M in gains last year .
  • Ongoing structural challenges: management expects total harvest volumes in 2025 to be lower than 2024, reinforcing the decision to wind down economically non-viable citrus operations .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$13.610 $0.935 $16.894
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.27) $(2.38) $(1.20)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$1.343 $(18.953) $(6.672)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(3.390) $0.615 $0.747

Segment breakdown (Q1 2025):

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions)Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)Gross Loss ($USD Millions)
Alico Citrus$16.326 $25.111 Included in total (see below)
Land Management & Other Ops$0.568 $0.021 Included in total (see below)
Total$16.894 $25.132 $(8.238)

KPIs (Q1 2025 vs prior year Q1 2024):

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Boxes Harvested (Total, thousands)1,078 943
Pound Solids Produced (thousands)4,666 4,047
Pound Solids per Box (Early/Mid)4.46 4.47
Price per Pound Solids (Early/Mid, $)$2.66 $3.69
Land Mgmt & Other Ops Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.393 $0.568
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(2.312) $0.747

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Harvest VolumesFY2025Unable to forecast 2024–2025 crop size; caution on production recovery Expect 2025 harvest volumes lower than 2024 Lowered
Pricing / Contract2024–2025Anticipated higher pricing under new Tropicana contract Realized $3.69 price per pound solids in Q1 (+$1.03 YoY) Raised/Confirmed realization
Land Sales ProceedsFY2025Active monetization of land portfolio; significant FY2024 sales completed ~ $20M of land sales expected in FY2025 (under option/negotiated) New quantified target
Cash RunwayFY2025 year-end outlookNot specifiedExpect to end FY2025 with cash sufficient to meet operating expenses for FY2026–FY2027 New
DividendQ1 2025$0.05/quarter maintained in FY2024 Paid $0.05 on Dec 13, 2024 Maintained
Liquidity (RLOC availability)Point-in-time~$86.6M at 9/30/2024 ~$73.5M at 12/31/2024 Decreased (draws utilized)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Strategic Transformation (pivot beyond citrus)Evaluating highest/best use; entitlements progressing; monetizing select groves Formal decision to wind down citrus after current harvest; become diversified land company; 75% ag use, 25% potential development; targeting positive cash flow and cash runway Accelerating pivot
Citrus Greening & Weather ImpactsContinued impacts of Hurricane Ian; inventory write-downs; cautious outlook Hurricane Milton drove fruit drop; pound solids down; 2025 volumes likely lower Ongoing pressure
Tropicana PricingNew 3-year agreement; expect higher prices next season Realized 38.7% YoY price uplift in Q1 Tailwind realized
Liquidity & Debt Profile~$94.8M availability; term debt due 2029 ~$73.5M availability; no significant maturities until 2029 Stable, ample
Real Estate Entitlements & SalesCorkscrew Grove entitlement work; selective land sales Advancing land sales (~$20M FY25); entitlement progress in Collier/Highlands; conservation program applications Building momentum
Potential Federal Relief—Monitoring potential federal relief (Hurricanes Ian, Milton) via Florida Citrus Mutual updates Watch item

Management Commentary

  • “We are executing our strategic transformation to become a diversified land company… By exiting capital-intensive citrus production, we strengthen our financial position… anticipated proceeds and cash generated by the Valencia harvest… are expected to fund operations through fiscal 2027.” — John Kiernan, CEO .
  • “During the first fiscal quarter… lower levels year-over-year of pounds solid being produced… trends… indicate total harvest volume for fiscal 2025 will likely be lower than fiscal 2024… reinforced our decision to wind down… citrus operations.” — John Kiernan, CEO .
  • “Revenue increased 21% to $16.9 million… $2.7 million increase… primarily due to an increase in the price per pound solid… at a $3.69 average price vs $2.66 prior year.” — Brad Heine, CFO .
  • “We expect to realize approximately $20 million in land sales in fiscal 2025… expected to fund operations through fiscal 2027… $73.5 million of remaining availability on our line of credit.” — John Kiernan & Brad Heine .
  • “Management estimates that the present value of our current land holdings could be worth approximately $650 million to $750 million…” — John Kiernan, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • The transcript provided includes prepared remarks and an indication that the line would open for analyst Q&A, but no Q&A exchanges were available in the reviewed content. Management reiterated guidance parameters and strategic transformation themes before transitioning to Q&A invitation .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue estimates via S&P Global Capital IQ for Q1 2025 and prior quarters; the request failed due to a daily request limit being exceeded, so estimate comparisons are not provided at this time. Values unavailable from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Pricing tailwind materialized: average price per pound solids rose to $3.69 (+38.7% YoY), cushioning revenue against production declines; expect continued contract pricing benefits into the Valencia harvest .
  • Production risks persist: Hurricane Milton and greening lowered pound solids; management now explicitly expects FY2025 harvest volumes below FY2024, a key driver of near-term citrus margin pressure until wind-down completes .
  • Transformation in motion: pivot to diversified land monetization and development, with ~$20M land-sale proceeds anticipated in FY2025 and entitlement initiatives underway—shifting earnings drivers away from volatile citrus .
  • Liquidity and runway: ~$73.5M undrawn credit, no significant maturities until 2029, and targeted year-end cash sufficiency to cover FY2026–FY2027 operating expenses—supports execution of land strategy and buffers weather/operational shocks .
  • Adjusted EBITDA inflected positive despite production headwinds, aided by pricing and lower G&A; watch for incremental benefit in Q2 from Valencia harvest timing .
  • Earnings volatility tied to land sales: absent gains this quarter led to a net loss vs a gain-driven profit last year; near-term bottom line will hinge on timing of land monetization while citrus winds down .
  • Tactical setup: near-term narrative is transition execution and land-sale closings; medium-term thesis centers on unlocking HBU via entitlements and diversified ag leases, potentially reducing seasonality and weather/disease exposure .